Michel systematic research
Unified Alpha
MODEL ACTIVE · 29 Oct 2026 · 03:00 UTC
Plain-English methodology

Many observations. One net portfolio.

Validated hourly strategy sleeves create candidate exposures. Unified combines and nets them, applies a volatility and drawdown budget, and changes the paper portfolio only when the net target moves materially.
PAPER ONLY
Public benchmark
BTC with equal risk
Technical name: Vol-Targeted BTC (20%).

What the model uses

Price, volume, completed hourly signals, market volatility, directional efficiency and funding. AdaptiveTrend contributes as one provisional internal sleeve because it has the longest available historical study; it is not the benchmark. Order-book data determine modeled execution cost, not direction.

Why netting matters

If one sleeve wants long BTC and another wants short BTC, Unified trades only the residual exposure. This prevents the public model from paying twice for opposing internal ideas.

BTC with equal risk

The benchmark estimates BTC volatility from completed daily returns and targets 20% annualized risk. At 50% estimated volatility it holds roughly 40% BTC exposure. Exposure is capped at 1.5× and only rebalanced outside a 20% relative band.

Costs

Unified and its benchmark include modeled taker fees, observed half-spread, conservative extra slippage and hourly perpetual funding. Cash yield is zero unless a real, auditable yield source is introduced.

Research boundaries

Can this place real orders?

No. There is no wallet, signing key or live-order route.

Does a higher return prove alpha?

No. Evidence time, drawdown, costs and the minimum detectable difference remain visible. Short windows cannot establish a durable advantage.

What changed on 2 September 2026?

The track record was preserved, but execution became one net portfolio, turnover controls were added and the public benchmark changed to equal-risk BTC. The change is marked rather than hidden.